Agenda for the Nation: 2013 and Beyond-1
May 6th, 2013 | By Professor Khurshid Ahmed | Category: Pakistan, World
The next government, which is expected to be in power sometime this year, shall have to formulate a national agenda for the next five years in the context of global, regional and domestic scenarios.
On the global scene, with haunting shadows of 9/11 still lingering, the real issue remains the need for an effective exit strategy. The way out is not yet clear and the costs of confusion and inaction are increasing, even multiplying. Despite some serious efforts, exit strategies are still in limbo. While this process has been unfolding, a new catastrophe in the form of a global financial crisis has cast its gloomy spell over the whole world.
The financial crisis began in September 2007 but the year 2008 was the worst hit. It was hoped that 2009 would be a year of recovery but even in the beginning of 2013, recovery remains a distant hope. During these five years, the financial predicament has impacted all the sectors of economy, attaining the proportions of an economic catastrophe.
Another important aspect is that a crisis emanating primarily in the private sector (banking, property and real estate), gradually affected other sectors having devastating consequences for production, trade, public debt, employment and budgetary deficits. State bailouts to save the system are beginning to change the role of government within the current capitalistic economic system. This has snowballed into an all-engulfing crisis. Greece, Spain and Italy are faced with crisis at the national levels. Other Western countries too have not been totally immune. Germany has so far been able not only to safeguard itself but also helped others, yet there is an increasing unease. France is in a difficult position.
In the US, national debt has crossed the 16-trillion-dollar limit and now they are trying to seek a new ceiling. The two-pronged strategy of tax cuts and state intervention to promote economic recovery has not been successful so far. It is now being realized that the economic crisis has the capacity to turn into a civilizational crisis exposing the weakness relating to the moral, political, structural and institutional dimensions.
In this context, the symptoms of a shift of global economic balance of power are also becoming visible. The role of Asia and Latin America is increasing. Even the developing countries, despite their problems, are searching for new roles. They are beginning to be looked upon as a source of strength in the future instead of a burden. China, Japan, Brazil, India and Turkey are being looked at as relatively more important players in the future. That is one scenario.
The second scenario relates to Arab Spring. From Pakistani point of view, two aspects are very important. One is that hegemonistic neo-colonial post-WWII arrangements that have so far been calling the shots in the region are crumbling. There is a universal urge for change. Secondly, this urge for change also reflects a new, assertive mood of the people, the real stakeholders, who were marginalized in the past. They are reasserting themselves to play a more decisive role. An unintended byproduct of these developments has a significant ideological dimension.
Whenever any genuine democratic process has unfolded in the Muslim World, it has also meant greater role of religion in general and Islam in particular. I recollect a very succinct observation by two Western scholars, of course in different contexts and with different objectives.
Wilfred Cantwell Smith mentions in his books, Islam in Modern History and Pakistan as an Islamic State, that whenever there would be democratization in Pakistan and other Muslim countries, Islamization would emerge as a corollary. Kissinger, also, in one of his speeches in the sixties, expressed this idea in with a deep concern. He was concerned that democratization in the Arab World may lead to a new role of Islam in politics that could be a challenge to the West and its interests. With this worry in his mind, Kissinger suggested stressed the need for balkanization of the Arab World, suggesting strategies for support of ethnic and sectarian movements. In his view, following a policy based on this strategy could also act as insurance to protect Israel. Promotion of ethnic and sectarian movements amongst the Kurds, Arabs, Iranians and Turks was part of this strategy. A similar game is being fostered in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Arab World today. This scenario must be kept in view when planning a future agenda for our country.
Regional Scenario
The third one is the regional scenario. Pakistan is at the receiving end of what is happening in Afghanistan. It is also being directly affected by America’s role in Iraq and US alignment with India. China’s current efforts to evolve a more assertive and multidimensional strategy has also its implications for Pakistan-China relations. While continuing its earlier development-specific efforts towards self-reliance, it is now making serious efforts to play a more active role in Asia and Africa, on its way to an emerging global power. The most immediate challenge that we face comes from the expected exit of the US and NATO forces from Afghanistan. This is unavoidable. Yet the way this is coming about is very lopsided. France has withdrawn abruptly. So did Italy. Spain had done that earlier. The UK is on the verge of withdrawal. And the US, too, has no other option. The post American scenario in Afghanistan is going to have crucial consequences for Pakistan. As also the Iran-Israel-America tension whose escalation would have very serious consequences for Pakistan and the Middle East. We cannot afford to ignore all these challenges.
Domestic Situation
The fourth scenario relates to the domestic situation. Even if we do not go very far back, the last fourteen years are very important. These years can be grouped into two periods: (a) the Musharraf period (1999-2008) and (b) the Zardari-PPP period (2008-2013). The former period witnessed reversal of the democratic process, re-establishment of military rule, subordination of all constitutional organs to the will of the military ruler, promotion of an elitist capitalistic economy, weakening of the country’s ideological identity and serious compromises on issues of independence and sovereignty of the state.
The tragic events of 9/11 and abject surrender of Pakistani leadership to the US pressure changed the whole equation of Pak-US relationship and resulted not only in seriously denting our national sovereignty and independence but also caused huge losses in life, property and economy. India-Pakistan relationships also took a new turn to the disadvantage of Pakistan with the core issues of Kashmir and water dispute sidelined. Out-of-the-box solutions became favorites; yet they ended up in fiascos. In short, Pakistan suffered in all respects: politics, economy, law and order, national cohesion, culture and ideology.
(To be continued)
