Professor Khurshid Ahmed – My Bit for Change

Agenda for the Nation 2013 and Beyond-3

Over the past five years, extremely bad governance wrought with corruption and compromise in the name of continuity of democracy has brought the country to a disastrous point. This has given rise to several crises having long-term repercussions, eroding our sovereignty, economy and even our identity as a nation. An incisive view of such issues and concerns follows.

Erosion of Independence and Sovereignty: First, as a result of all the above mentioned predicaments, the country is confronted with aspects of an existential crisis: erosion of independence and sovereignty, loss of national honor and neglect of vital national interests. Our independence, our autonomy and our identity as a nation are at risk. In view of this we have to search for a new security paradigm in the proposed ‘Agenda for 2013 and Beyond’. That security paradigm must have independence, sovereignty of the country, national interest and national honor, as our key concerns, to be protected and promoted within the context of availability of resources. We must realize that whether we are strong or weak, whether we are small or large, there is a core set of national interests that has to be protected at all cost. Security is not merely a military phenomenon. It is multidimensional: having human, military, political, cultural and economic dimensions. As such protection of independence, sovereignty and national interest is an overriding concern and must be integral to our Security Paradigm.

Ideological, Moral and Cultural Identity: The second key issue relates to our country’s ideological, moral and cultural identity. That too has been compromised, tarnished and marginalized. A people cannot be inspired and motivated to rise up and sacrifice everything only for petty political and economic concerns. They live and die only for higher ideals. So along with security and independence, the ideological, moral and national identity of the nation is a matter of vital concern. Hence the cardinal importance of Islam as a source of our national identity.

Even a number of Western strategists are now recognizing that Islam is integral to a Muslim society. And if this aspect is ignored or allowed to be disfigured, peace within and peace with the rest of the world would remain elusive. This fact must be recognized that Islam is the basis of our identity, notwithstanding the narrative of the secular lobbies or vested interests. If this identity is ignored, camouflaged or compromised, the people and the rulers would never be on the same page. Consequently a country torn from within as a result of such a conflict would never achieve good governance.

Economic Dimension: The third one is the economic dimension. Power of a nation, political as well military, depends very much on its economic strength. It is of critical importance in respect of protection of independence and honour and promotion of national identity and well being. Security and economy go hand in hand. People’s welfare is the source of a nation’s real strength. During the last few years our economy has unfortunately gone down the drain. All major economic indicators are in the negative. Yet, if we have survived it is because of inherent resilience of the people. People’s will and presence of a large informal sector have come out as the hidden source of strength of our economy. That is how we have survived despite grossly flawed government policies, acute energy shortages, and rampant corruption.

The way economy has been handled since 2008 smacks of extreme incompetence and mismanagement. High rates of inflation, unemployment, and poverty; erosion in the value of money, both domestically and in world markets; low levels of production; flight of capital; mounting debts; escalating levels of debt servicing; precarious state of reserves — all have driven the economy towards brink of disaster.

It is the inherent resilience of the non-public sector that has enabled the country to survive. There is no doubt that people have suffered and every sector of economy has been affected. Only a certain elite wallows in prosperity and affluence. Common people suffered most. It is a sad commentary on the performance of the Government that public sector enterprises (PSE) have been a constant drain on the economy. Some energy shortages were there before 2008 but during the last five years shortages have snowballed, disrupting the economy and worsening the living conditions. The volume of domestic and international debt has increased from Rs6 trillion in 2008 to over Rs15 trillion in 2012. Capacity to repay debt has not been created. Debt servicing has become item number one in public expenditure. In 1970s and 1980s, defence expenditure was used to be the largest component of government spending. Now debt servicing is almost double the defense expenditure. It is eating away more than three times what is spent on development. This is a grave situation and a huge challenge which can be met only if the country gets a capable leadership. What is the economy needs is a paradigm shift: an economic path focusing on growth, human resource development, elimination of corruption, along with effective mobilization of domestic resources and also those of the expatriates—this coupled with good governance and shift of focus towards self-reliance and people’s welfare as centre-piece of all policies and programs.

‘War on Terror’: The ‘War on Terror’ is not merely a question of security and foreign policy. It is also a question of economy, as also of trust between the people and the rulers. Protection of life, honor and property are sine qua non of civilized existence. If security is to be privatized, it is a vote of no confidence in the Government and the institutions responsible for law and order in the country. The economic cost of the war on terror is horrendous. Poor people of Pakistan have financed this American war to the extent of over $100 billion which is the direct economic cost. Indirect costs are much higher. Deterioration of law and order is directly related to our involvement in the ongoing war. Our country is also suffering at the hands of terror mafias, criminal groups, sectarian outfits and secessionist forces. Foreign agencies too are engaged in overt and covert operations. This is over and above another direct cost in the form of loss of life of over six thousand armed and security forces personnel, over forty thousand civilians, injuries to more than double those numbers, and displacement of over three million Pakistanis.

How to bring this war to an end is the most urgent issue. There cannot be only one way of dealing with all of the multifarious aspects of this challenge. There has to be a multidimensional strategy. War on Terror has to be brought to an end in a manner that does not aggravate terrorism. It is also important to ensure that the current war on terror is not replaced by another era of civil war in Afghanistan. If there is no real peace in Afghanistan we in Pakistan cannot live in peace.

Relationship between Federation and Provinces: Relationship between the federation and the provinces, and between the provinces and the local governments is also an extremely important issue. Genuine decentralization without compromising the foundations of federation is one of our existential needs. Serious work has to be done in this respect by developing a clear roadmap taking care of the genuine concerns of the federation as well as the provinces, particularly in Balochistan, in a manner that all stakeholders participate in this effort and ultimately arrive at consensus. Structural changes in the monetary and fiscal system are also required. We have a fiscal system which does not conform to principles of federalism. What we have is a kind of pseudo federalism.

There is a structural problem as almost all revenue collection is done by the Federal Government as is the case in a unitary state. But expenditure processes are in a different mould. Those who manage expenditure are not responsible for taxation. This lies at the roots of a lot of fiscal irresponsibility. Unless taxes are also decentralized, principles of fiscal responsibility cannot be promoted at all levels. The financial structure has to be redesigned and restructured. The fact that federation collects and provinces spend is recipe for indiscipline. That is why the task of development of a proper and responsible federal system demands major changes in structures, policies and processes of governance, political and financial. The 18th Constitutional Amendment was a step in the right direction, but only a first step. Successive steps required have not been taken yet. That is why we are faced with structural as well as political issues in this respect.

Role of Private Sector: Despite all economic constraints, if we can set our priorities right and mobilize our resource potential, particularly in the social sector and public sector development, we can inaugurate a new era of economic development and social welfare. Private enterprise should play a key role. It is borne out by history that whenever private sector was given proper opportunity it has played its role positively and constructively. But because of corruption, lack of good governance, real and contrived clash of interests, absence of clarity of vision, neglect of accountability, and failure of regulatory mechanisms, private sector has not been able to make its full contribution. A balanced approach is needed with a vibrant private sector, and responsible and supportive public sector. The role of the state particularly in the realm of infrastructure development, provision of social services, and bringing the lower strata’s of society into the mainstream of economy is of critical importance.

State’s responsibility to ensure education and health for all and adequate infrastructure development at the grassroots levels and financial structures that can provide lifeblood for all the layers of economic activity such as agriculture, small and cottage industry, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are very important. Key targets must be set for macro-economic stabilization, as well as economic development ensuring social well-being for all members of the society and their active participation in economic processes. This calls for a different economic model. Development of such a model should be our immediate objective. If we are able to identify our real national objective, expound that vision with clarity and spell out a roadmap to move in that direction, we can help our future political leadership to lead the country out of this difficult situation.

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Agenda for the nation 2013 and beyond-2

What is the real nature and extent of the domestic crisis? Let me try to highlight some of its major dimensions. First and foremost, it is a ‘crisis of legitimacy’. For any country’s good governance, legitimacy is essential. Military general turned president Pervez Musharraf lacked legitimacy, and the outgoing government, despite having the semblance of democracy, also lacked moral and political legitimacy.

There is a. lack of trust between the people and the leadership, as also between state institutions and the stake-holders. The government was an arrangement of convenience, lacking unity of thought, commonality of vision and concerns. The spirit and substance of co-participation, co-operation and co-sharing did not exist. Key institutions were either at loggerheads or in a state of uneasy coexistence.

Higher judiciary is perhaps the only exception. Media has generally played a positive role. Army, which has always enjoyed the trust of the people as defenders of our borders, has become disputed because of its involvement in the ‘War on Terror’, and also because of people’s apprehensions about the role of intelligence agencies in civil, political and regional affairs.

This crisis of legitimacy is a matter of deep concern. This situation calls for fresh elections, fair and with utmost transparency. It is only with the emergence of a new political leadership, that enjoys people’s trust, that a new beginning can be made.

CRISIS OF INTEGRITY: The second dimension of the crisis can be described as a crisis of integrity. It is more than a natural corollary of the crisis of legitimacy. While integrity includes legitimacy it is more than that. Integrity is achieved on the basis of vision, character, trust and incorruptibility. The incumbent political regime has failed to demonstrate any of these. The ongoing ‘War on Terror’ has seriously dented the integrity of the ruling classes. A large number of people think that their leadership is not making decisions on the basis of what constitutes Pakistan’s national interest.

There is a trust deficit between the army and the people. An alarming symptom of this was the official instruction issued to military personnel during the Musharraf regime not to travel in public transport in uniform. This was the lowest watermark. The role assigned to army viz-a-viz internal counter-terrorism is unavoidable. The essential part of a strategy of deterrence has its darker side. Undoubtedly, terrorism is a threat yet it has to be tackled in an effective manner, focusing upon the causes of the malaise and its origin and not merely its symptoms and expressions. There can be no military solution to an essentially political problem as the Parliament had recommended in its three resolutions. It had suggested having an independent foreign policy and a political solution of the problem based on dialogue, development and deterrence. The government painfully failed to follow that path. The imposed strategy it followed has failed even to contain terrorism, what to say of its elimination. Unfortunately, this strategy has dented army’s integrity viz-a-viz the people.

Unfortunately, the US has played a role in it by making the people feel that army and the political leadership are following American roadmap, not a truly Pakistani policy. This has a direct role in aggravating the crisis of integrity. It would be appropriate to suggest that a way out cannot be found without a well thought out political decision which is possible only if there is change in political leadership. Unless a new leadership comes up with a new vision and a fresh strategy to serve Pakistan’s interests we may not be able to come out of this crisis. This new strategy must take on board all the stakeholders as partners.

The political scene is clouded but there certainly are some positive developments. The government, despite all its failures and compromises, had not resorted to naked political vendetta and victimisation, as had been the case during military rules. However poor their performance was, major constitutional institutions, even though they had failed to fulfil the people’s expectations, were operational.

In this regard, at least three positive aspects can be noted: One, at the constitutional and legal level, major constitutional distortions which had destroyed the balance of power as envisioned in the original Constitution have been removed and a new balance achieved through a national consensus. All the problems have not been resolved yet, but a framework has certainly been agreed upon, which can take care of issues at the federal level and can lead to improvement in relations between the federation and provinces. It is a big failure that the provincial-local relationship could not be addressed so far although at federal and provincial levels, some developments are positive as far as the constitutional framework is concerned. Similarly, there is some improvement in the area of legislation through proper parliamentary process. Legislation by ordinances, although present, has decreased.

Secondly, there have been some positive developments as far as the higher judiciary is concerned. Independence of the Judiciary was achieved through a heroic struggle of the people and the legal community. The post-2008 government showed great reluctance, even resistance, to restore independent judiciary, but the will of the people prevailed and, while the independence of Judiciary had been achieved, tensions between the Executive and the Judiciary escalated.

Many of Judiciary’s decisions remain unimplemented. At times it seemed that there was a tug of war between the Executive and the Judiciary. Judicial activism becomes necessary because of the failure of the Executive to deliver and operate within the framework of the Constitution and Law. The Judiciary had to fulfil its normal responsibilities as also respond to people’s grievances caused by Government’s failure to do its duty fairly and honestly. In such cases it had to resort to its constitutional role as the defender of human rights. This has been due to an abnormal situation.

Judicial restraint must remain as important as judicial activism. A balance between the two is necessary. The whole idea of fundamental rights and the Supreme Court to be the guardian of fundamental rights was a very important contribution of the original 1973 Constitution. Embedded in this constitutional provision is the view that if fundamental rights are violated as a result of a faulty executive action, it becomes the duty of the Supreme Court (not any other court) to intervene. That is how a political issue becomes an issue of fundamental rights. And as such it comes under the original jurisdiction of the Supreme Court. Frequent use of this right is taking place because the executive had failed to deliver. But still, while we recognise the positive contribution of judicial activism, the danger is that if it becomes a norm that would not be helpful to promoting institutional balance and safeguarding structural equation as established in the Constitution. That leads us back to the core issue of good governance. Courts cannot play the role of the Executive and its different organs. It can only act as a source of restraint and guide, not as a substitute.

The third positive development relates to the freedom of media and its enhanced role both as a source of information and as a forum promoting debate that could influence policy-making. It has also a role to play to promote greater accountability in the society and polity. Unfortunately, there have been a number of excesses in this area as well, particularly because of the role of certain lobbies, both domestic and international; and also because of covert influence of certain cultural groups, political mafias and power elites who have also used advertisements to achieve their vested interests. Despite these failures and weaknesses, free media is a source of strength and whatever has been achieved has been a positive development.

CRISIS OF GOVERNANCE: The third challenge that we face relates to a serious, all-pervading crisis of governance. It is a central issue. Along with the crisis of legitimacy and integrity, it is the crisis of governance that has to be the centerpiece for an ‘Agenda for the Nation 2013 and Beyond’. Legitimacy and integrity are essential but not enough. Without good governance a country cannot make real progress. If the leadership and institutions lack the capacity to deliver, the governance would be at low ebb. And when a lack of capacity is coupled with corruption, all is lost.

Our failure of governance can be traced to many factors: lack of legitimacy and credibility, failure on the count of rule of law, disregard of the principle of merit, absence of transparency, and wanton violation of standing operational procedures, abuse of power and wealth-aggrandisement for personal ends. Some SoPs may also be flawed but whatever is there has to be respected. And if rules are openly and persistently violated good governance can never follow. It is because of this rampant culture of incompetence and corruption that has driven governance to near collapse. This is so throughout the length and breadth of the country. If a change for the better has to take place, both incompetence and corruption, would have to be addressed firmly.

I put incompetence and corruption as twin disasters because in my view corruption is antithetical to capacity. It is also a gateway to the destruction of capacity and credibility. Corruption is not merely monetary embezzlement, which is only one gruesome form of it. Each and every form of misuse of power is corruption. That destroys every fabric of the state and pollutes all those processes that produce capable leadership in a country. So the menace of corruption has to be fought at the foundational levels (legitimacy and integrity) and also at the operational levels (competence, capability, rule of law and respect for merit). An aggressive anti-corruption crusade can result in substantial reduction in corruption in the first phase and its ultimate eradication in due course of time. This should be one of the primary objectives in this National Agenda.

CRISIS OF CREDIBILITY: Primarily a moral phenomenon based on conformity between word and deed, policy and action, law and respect of law, the crisis of credibility is another aspect that needs to be urgently addressed as it affects every activity in every sphere of governance.

It is a pity that no serious steps have been taken to set things right, and the conditions allowed to go to such abysmal depths that all these crises are now considered the hallmarks of this government. All the forces, local and global, responsible for bringing about such a pass stand in the dock of history, charged with bringing about the worst form of governance in our history.

(To be continued)

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Agenda for the Nation: 2013 and Beyond-1

The next government, which is expected to be in power sometime this year, shall have to formulate a national agenda for the next five years in the context of global, regional and domestic scenarios.

On the global scene, with haunting shadows of 9/11 still lingering, the real issue remains the need for an effective exit strategy. The way out is not yet clear and the costs of confusion and inaction are increasing, even multiplying. Despite some serious efforts, exit strategies are still in limbo. While this process has been unfolding, a new catastrophe in the form of a global financial crisis has cast its gloomy spell over the whole world.

The financial crisis began in September 2007 but the year 2008 was the worst hit. It was hoped that 2009 would be a year of recovery but even in the beginning of 2013, recovery remains a distant hope. During these five years, the financial predicament has impacted all the sectors of economy, attaining the proportions of an economic catastrophe.

Another important aspect is that a crisis emanating primarily in the private sector (banking, property and real estate), gradually affected other sectors having devastating consequences for production, trade, public debt, employment and budgetary deficits. State bailouts to save the system are beginning to change the role of government within the current capitalistic economic system. This has snowballed into an all-engulfing crisis. Greece, Spain and Italy are faced with crisis at the national levels. Other Western countries too have not been totally immune. Germany has so far been able not only to safeguard itself but also helped others, yet there is an increasing unease. France is in a difficult position.

In the US, national debt has crossed the 16-trillion-dollar limit and now they are trying to seek a new ceiling. The two-pronged strategy of tax cuts and state intervention to promote economic recovery has not been successful so far. It is now being realized that the economic crisis has the capacity to turn into a civilizational crisis exposing the weakness relating to the moral, political, structural and institutional dimensions.

In this context, the symptoms of a shift of global economic balance of power are also becoming visible. The role of Asia and Latin America is increasing. Even the developing countries, despite their problems, are searching for new roles. They are beginning to be looked upon as a source of strength in the future instead of a burden. China, Japan, Brazil, India and Turkey are being looked at as relatively more important players in the future. That is one scenario.

The second scenario relates to Arab Spring. From Pakistani point of view, two aspects are very important. One is that hegemonistic neo-colonial post-WWII arrangements that have so far been calling the shots in the region are crumbling. There is a universal urge for change. Secondly, this urge for change also reflects a new, assertive mood of the people, the real stakeholders, who were marginalized in the past. They are reasserting themselves to play a more decisive role. An unintended byproduct of these developments has a significant ideological dimension.

Whenever any genuine democratic process has unfolded in the Muslim World, it has also meant greater role of religion in general and Islam in particular. I recollect a very succinct observation by two Western scholars, of course in different contexts and with different objectives.

Wilfred Cantwell Smith mentions in his books, Islam in Modern History and Pakistan as an Islamic State, that whenever there would be democratization in Pakistan and other Muslim countries, Islamization would emerge as a corollary. Kissinger, also, in one of his speeches in the sixties, expressed this idea in with a deep concern. He was concerned that democratization in the Arab World may lead to a new role of Islam in politics that could be a challenge to the West and its interests. With this worry in his mind, Kissinger suggested stressed the need for balkanization of the Arab World, suggesting strategies for support of ethnic and sectarian movements. In his view, following a policy based on this strategy could also act as insurance to protect Israel. Promotion of ethnic and sectarian movements amongst the Kurds, Arabs, Iranians and Turks was part of this strategy. A similar game is being fostered in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Arab World today. This scenario must be kept in view when planning a future agenda for our country.

Regional Scenario

The third one is the regional scenario. Pakistan is at the receiving end of what is happening in Afghanistan. It is also being directly affected by America’s role in Iraq and US alignment with India. China’s current efforts to evolve a more assertive and multidimensional strategy has also its implications for Pakistan-China relations. While continuing its earlier development-specific efforts towards self-reliance, it is now making serious efforts to play a more active role in Asia and Africa, on its way to an emerging global power. The most immediate challenge that we face comes from the expected exit of the US and NATO forces from Afghanistan. This is unavoidable. Yet the way this is coming about is very lopsided. France has withdrawn abruptly. So did Italy. Spain had done that earlier. The UK is on the verge of withdrawal. And the US, too, has no other option. The post American scenario in Afghanistan is going to have crucial consequences for Pakistan. As also the Iran-Israel-America tension whose escalation would have very serious consequences for Pakistan and the Middle East. We cannot afford to ignore all these challenges.

Domestic Situation

The fourth scenario relates to the domestic situation. Even if we do not go very far back, the last fourteen years are very important. These years can be grouped into two periods: (a) the Musharraf period (1999-2008) and (b) the Zardari-PPP period (2008-2013). The former period witnessed reversal of the democratic process, re-establishment of military rule, subordination of all constitutional organs to the will of the military ruler, promotion of an elitist capitalistic economy, weakening of the country’s ideological identity and serious compromises on issues of independence and sovereignty of the state.

The tragic events of 9/11 and abject surrender of Pakistani leadership to the US pressure changed the whole equation of Pak-US relationship and resulted not only in seriously denting our national sovereignty and independence but also caused huge losses in life, property and economy. India-Pakistan relationships also took a new turn to the disadvantage of Pakistan with the core issues of Kashmir and water dispute sidelined. Out-of-the-box solutions became favorites; yet they ended up in fiascos. In short, Pakistan suffered in all respects: politics, economy, law and order, national cohesion, culture and ideology.

(To be continued)

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